The East Asia Economist Since the pandemic began, productivity has probably increased more quickly in Taiwan than any other major economy. As a result, Taiwan isn't facing the higher inflation and rates being experienced elsewhere. Taiwan's competitiveness instead reinforces structural trends for a stronger TWD.
Taiwan – August PMI The PMI suggests there's a big industrial cycle slowdown in the works. That is important for Taiwan and the TWD. Because it suggests more downside risk for the regional export cycle, the weaker PMI also has implications for Korea and China.
Taiwan - June foreign trade Exports held up again in June, but the outlook is changing as expectations for the semiconductor industry become more bearish. The recent equity sell-off suggests Taiwan's exports could be falling 10-20% YoY in the coming months.
Taiwan – May export orders Orders data continue to suggest that Taiwan's headline export growth slows towards zero in the next 3-6 months. That probably represents a best case outcome for export data for the rest of the region.
Taiwan – May exports The USD level of exports remained elevated in May, but it is increasingly likely that shipments will be falling in the next 6M.
Taiwan – May PMI The PMI suggests Taiwan is experiencing a usual down cycle in manufacturing. The caveats to this conclusion are that the recent slowdown has been worsened by the covid disruption in China and continuing supply shortages.
Taiwan – April export orders It has been clear for a while that the Asian export cycle has peaked and is moderating. The sharp fall in Taiwan export orders in April is the first sign that the slowdown is not becoming much sharper.
Taiwan - Q1 GDP & March LI Q1 growth was strong. The official leading indicator for March is pointing to a clear slowdown, but more gradually than the path suggested by equities.
