The platform for tracking and understanding East Asia macro
A slide pack on demographic dynamics, in particular addressing why the Japan experience doesn't tell us much about how changes in population structures will impact economies elsewhere.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Our latest slide pack summarising cyclical developments.
Our base case would be exports flat-line the next 3M. But we can't ignore the upside risk being suggested by equities. That will become more meaningful for the outlook if it starts to show up in regional business sentiment, with the next check on that being the Korean confidence data next week.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A short video of this week's regional themes
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Regional data show three themes: 1) Differentiation: Japan strongest, Taiwan weakest; 3) Diversification in export markets: autos and DM holding up while tech and China remain weak; and 3) Desynchronisation: despite the weakness in exports and industry, services and retail sales are holding up.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A slidepack summarising our cyclical and market views
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of our latest thematic piece on services and inflation.
A chart pack summarising our current views
Manufacturing is in recession, but employment is rising and core inflation not falling. With services normalising after covid, this unusual set-up can persist. That's particularly true in Japan, but in Korea and Taiwan too, it looks like a DM recession will be needed to bring down core inflation.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to expect next week.
The East Asia Econ weekly summary.
A recap of East Asia Econ over the last seven days, and a reminder of what to watch over the next seven.
The East Asia Econ weekly summary
What happened on East Asia Econ last week.
The manufacturing PMI was very weak in January, showing that the industrial sector remains deep in recession. The best that can be said is that the data are so bad that they probably can't get much worse. CPI was stronger in January, but that likely reflects New Year holiday distortions.
Exports across the region fell by -7% on average in December. By the end of Q1, the rate of contraction is likely to double, led by bigger falls in shipments to the US and EU. Beyond that, there are tentative signs of a floor, as DM sentiment surveys bounce, and China emerges after covid.
Taiwan's GDP contracted in Q4. The labour market was stable at a headline level in December, but employment in manufacturing did fall. We continue to think Taiwan will be the first to cut, with the risk being any lift that results from China's re-opening.