Region – monthly cycle slides

Paul Cavey -

Here is this month's cycle slidepack:

Japan

  • Core inflation solid around 2%
  • But domestic prices still well below global prices in JPY terms
  • That means upside inflation risks. BOJ to hike more quickly

China

  • Cycle still soft, and global tariffs would be a problem
  • But China isn’t EM – depreciation doesn’t force domestic tightening
  • And it isn’t 1990s Japan. Structural strengths, and rates low enough already

Korea and Taiwan

  • Korea has the weakest cycle. Taiwan the strongest
  • BOK to cut more. CBC won’t cut, still might hike
  • Both will find it very tricky to handle Trump
asia_cycle_mar_25
asia_cycle_mar_25.pdf
7 MB
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