Korea - close to cutting territory It didn't quite there yet in November, but in the next couple of months business sentiment will most likely be back at levels where, far rather than hiking 50bp, the BOK has historically been cutting.
Korea - becoming more interesting The business sentiment survey for October shows confidence continuing to fall, particularly in manufacturing. It is likely by the end of this year that, for the first time in this cycle, the strength of activity starts to become a concern for policymakers.
Korea – business sentiment The business sentiment survey shows activity remains reasonably firm, while inflation momentum is fading. At a minimum, the pace of BOK tightening should be slowing.
Korea – July foreign trade Korean July trade data were consistent with three themes for the regional export cycle: momentum is slowing; so far, it is a slowdown, not a recession; but leading indicators point to exports starting to contract before year-end.
Korea – July CPI Korean inflation is probably close to peaking as the rise in goods prices starts to decelerate. But services price inflation remains firm, and while that continues, there isn't much room for the central bank to be able to relax.
Korea – August business sentiment Business sentiment and price indicators remain at high levels. That justifies more BOK tightening in the short term. But there are some signs of change ahead, with exporter sentiment clearly down from the peaks, and inflation leads also falling.
Korea – July consumer confidence While consumer confidence fell in July., the bigger story is the very sharp rise in inflation expectations.
Korea - July BOK meeting The BOK was yet more hawkish today, signalling controlling inflation, and specifically inflation expectations, remained the bank's top priority.
Korea – June labour market The June labour market release wasn't significant for the BOK. There was a pause in the rapid tightening of the last few months, but the unemployment rate remains very low, and employment high.
