There was a dissenting proposal to hike today, and while the majority voted to stay on hold, Ueda suggested more clarity on wages would clear the way for rates to go up. That makes the early January meeting of BOJ regional managers important, though for the JPY, that's quite a while to wait.

The BOJ releases its quarterly Tankan survey in two parts. The summary was published Friday, and today's full release confirms the story: the forecast scores point to a labour market that is still tightening, and output price pressure that is continuing to build.

The Q4 Tankan shows business sentiment firm, the labour market still very tight, and pricing intentions rising. A few months ago, this sort of picture would have made it easy to think of an imminent rate hike. However, the faltering of the BOJ's message since make it hard now to have conviction.

Today's data releases were constructive: the December Reuters non-mfg Tankan recovered from recent weakness with the outlook looking strong; the Q4 business sentiment survey from the MOF was solid, with the labour market tight; and PPI inflation rose again to the highest in more than a year.

The dip in consumption that began in August is continuing. By contrast, wage growth isn't slowing, and while for full-time workers has only just caught up with inflation, for part-time workers it is comfortably ahead. This should be setting up better consumption, and so aggregate demand, in 2025.

Profits ticked down in Q3, but that was after a strong Q3, and there's no change in the uptrend in earnings, margins or capex. In this context of continued strong profitability, the mild rise in the labour share is also constructive. However, trends in smaller firms are much weaker.

Today's data releases show the labour market remaining tight and consumers continuing to feel more confident than might be expected given price rises. Inflation continues to run at around 2%, and with rentals rising, inflation should have a higher floor from here.

Today's flash PMI was weak, but respondents highlighted JPY-driven price pressures. October CPI data were also firm. Ueda highlighted this week that December is live, but dependent on data before then. The BOJ's assessment of services inflation, and the Q4 Tankan, are particularly important.

Governor Ueda today struck a positive tone on domestic developments. But he also highlighted overseas uncertainties, and didn't give any hint of a hike in December. That doesn't make next month impossible, but it is more difficult.