China - credit better than the headlines The monetary data aren't bullish, but are more constructive than the headlines suggest. That's because credit growth outside of government borrowing is rising. This keeps alive the possibility that China is through the worst, though such an interpretation is a stretch as long as M1 growth is weak.
China – is that it for deflation? In October, headline PPI fell back into deflation, and CPI inflation eased quite sharply too. But there are signs that China is nearer the end of this deflation shock than the beginning.
Korea - labour market turning It isn't enough yet, but there are signs that the labour market is starting to cool. The unemployment rate remains low, but employment was more or less unchanged in October for the fifth consecutive month. The risks for the BOK are shifting.
China - export growth stops YoY export growth fell to zero in October. More downside is ahead, though surging car shipments suggest autos might buck this trend. Import demand is also slowing. It should contract aggressively in the next 6M, though that looks pessimistic given commodity prices and imports in the PMI.
China – summary slides Some slides from a brief presentation I gave yesterday. It was in three parts: the deflation problem; the short-term outlook; and the Congress contradiction.
Korea - close to cutting territory It didn't quite there yet in November, but in the next couple of months business sentiment will most likely be back at levels where, far rather than hiking 50bp, the BOK has historically been cutting.
China – tentative signs of a floor There are signs that the economy is bottoming, in the form of property sales, excavator sales and, to a lesser extent, property starts. These though are tentative, and need to strengthen before concluding the economy is through the worst.
China - monetary indicators still mixed With September's monetary data suggesting a further fall in liquidity preference and M1 growth, it still doesn't look like the economy is poised for a turnaround. But it is starting to feel like the risks around the cycle are less to the downside than they have been for the last few months.
