China – muddling through at risk from tariffs

The PMIs suggest the economy, once again, is muddling through. The better momentum after the policy announcements that started from September has faded, but isn't reversing. However, that probably isn't enough, given the new shock from tariffs that is about to hit.
China – still difficult to get excited

The PBC sentiment surveys suggest again an economy that is muddling through. One reason is that consumer spending hasn't fallen, with the big shifts instead being a further move away from consumption on goods to spending on services, and more saving in bank deposits rather than investments.
China – overall, somewhat stable

My view has been that China's cycle is probably stabilising, but not recovering. Today's data are consistent with that. Production of goods and services is running a bit over 5%, but property starts continue to fall, and retail sales don't point to any inflection in consumption
China – a turn in the credit data

The upturn in credit growth that began in June last year is continuing. That should be helping to put a floor under nominal growth. But that comes with caveats: private-sector credit lost momentum in February, and while mortgage lending isn't slowing, it doesn't show any sign of a rebound either.
China – ending of Chinese New Year drags down inflation

A decline in CPI in February was to be expected, given Chinese New Year fell in January, and there are tentative signs of deflation pressure easing. Food prices have stabilised so far in March. And the decline in core in February wasn't enough fully to reverse the strengthening seen since Q4.
China – Japanification scorecard: part 1

A video discussing why China isn't following Japan's path. This is the first part, looking at the seven demand-side factors that caused Japan's problems, and how China compares. The second video will discuss supply-side issues and the "deflationary mindset".
China - PMI details suggest a floor

The PMIs continue to suggest that, overall, there was no lasting improvement in the cycle after the September policy push. There are though some signs that things aren't getting worse any more, with both the construction PMI and employment indicators suggesting a floor.