A follow-up to the video a couple of weeks ago. That looked at demand-side factors. This delves into the supply-side and factors behind the "deflationary mindset". In these areas, China today looks even more different from Japan in the 1990s.

My view has been that China's cycle is probably stabilising, but not recovering. Today's data are consistent with that. Production of goods and services is running a bit over 5%, but property starts continue to fall, and retail sales don't point to any inflection in consumption

The upturn in credit growth that began in June last year is continuing. That should be helping to put a floor under nominal growth. But that comes with caveats: private-sector credit lost momentum in February, and while mortgage lending isn't slowing, it doesn't show any sign of a rebound either.

A decline in CPI in February was to be expected, given Chinese New Year fell in January, and there are tentative signs of deflation pressure easing. Food prices have stabilised so far in March. And the decline in core in February wasn't enough fully to reverse the strengthening seen since Q4.

A video discussing why China isn't following Japan's path. This is the first part, looking at the seven demand-side factors that caused Japan's problems, and how China compares. The second video will discuss supply-side issues and the "deflationary mindset".

The PMIs continue to suggest that, overall, there was no lasting improvement in the cycle after the September policy push. There are though some signs that things aren't getting worse any more, with both the construction PMI and employment indicators suggesting a floor.

Gone are the days when the monetary data can make a big difference to the market mood. Today's release doesn't turn back the clock: the headline is a bit stronger, but mortgage lending wasn't, and there are distortions from Chinese New Year and definition changes.

January core CPI picked up. That doesn't look like a Chinese New Year effect, and comes after Q4 when prices were already looking firmer. This dosn't mean inflation, but if core, which has underperformed other price indicators, is now catching up, it would mean China isn't in underlying deflation.

With the BOJ's review of post-1990s Japan, we have an inventory for Japanification. Using this to assess China today, what stands out is not the similarities, but the differences. All told, on my scoring China isn't graduating to Japanification, achieving a mark of only 30%.