Taiwan – post-covid acceleration holds Q124 growth was subdued, but Taiwan must still be one of the few economies both to have grown more strongly during covid, and to have since managed to retain the gains made.
China – strong exports in the PMI Both mfg PMIs for China were above 50 in April. There's some domestic bright spots, but the strength in the S&P PMI is all about exports.
Japan – still no retail recovery The labour market is tight, profits are up, business sentiment is strong, and inflation is higher. The one area of weakness is consumption, and that has yet to change.
China – less export price deflation Falling prices are often used as evidence for China exporting overcapacity. But export price deflation is now easing, as the base effect of the big inflation of 2022 fades.
Taiwan – px drive down consumer confidence As has been true in Japan, consumer confidence in Taiwan remains inversely correlated with inflation expectations, implying nominal wage growth is too low.
Taiwan – re-industrialisation I suppose it isn't really surprising given exports and the trade balance, but the bounce back in the manufacturing share since the early 2000s is still rather remarkable.
Japan – much lower Tokyo CPI Inflation fell sharply in Tokyo in April. The macro story should mean some of the decline is temporary, but it complicates the more bullish story the BOJ wants to tell
China – producer prices sideways The NBS's series for 10-day industrial prices 10 suggests overall PPI has stopped falling, though with big differences depending on the commodity.
Japan – services PPI bottoming The drop in services PPI inflation since late 2023 has threatened the BOJ's wage-price narrative. It is important that March data suggest a floor.
Korea – middle age pulls down confidence Overall consumer confidence is at the average of the last 20 years. But by age, young people are more optimistic than usual, 40-60 year olds much less so.
Taiwan – synchronised to the upside? Unusual domestic strength got Taiwan through the '23 export recession. Exports are now recovering, but consumption is still holding up. That's good news for the economy, bad news for the central bank.
Japan – strong cycle momentum The flash services PMI remained strong in April, and the mfg PMI lifted towards 50. S&P also reported the survey showing "intensifying price pressures". Japan is heating up.
Taiwan – still no big export recovery There was a bit of pick-up in IC orders in March, but not by enough to lift total orders, which have yet to regain 2023 levels. The export recovery remains sluggish.
Japan – strongest sentiment globally Relative to history, business sentiment in Japan is the strongest among most major economies in both mfg and non-mfg. That's only been seen once before.
Japan – China still weighing on exports Japan's export volumes to China are still almost 20% below the peak. Nor surprising, when the only strength in China's imports is primary goods and semi.
Korea – modest export upturn continues Korean exports are recovering. But at 5-10% YoY, growth doesn't yet look strong enough to offset weakness in the domestic economy.
China – importing only semi There's quite a contrast between the sense of domestic manufacturing capex boom, and the lack of any rise in imports of capital goods outside of semi.
China – auto exports sideways There are many reasons to expect a new wave of Chinese EVs to the world, but the last one arguably peaked in 2022, and another has yet to appear.
Taiwan – TSMC's outlook still positive for exports TSMC yesterday was less bullish on semi as a whole in 2024, but its own unchanged sales outlook still suggests a strong year for Taiwan exports
Japan – finally, some rental inflation It still isn't even at 0.2% YoY, but rental CPI is now rising the fastest since the 1990s, which is pulling up imputed rent too. Together, they account for almost 20% of the basket.
China – no change in buyer sentiment It is remarkable, given the big mortgage rate cuts and everything else thrown at the property market, that buyer sentiment just gets worse and worse.
Japan – tourism diversification The cheap JPY isn't boosting Japan's merchandise exports, but it has helped with a sharp recovery in tourism, even though arrivals from China remain subdued.
Taiwan – so far, only TSMC The recent recovery in the mfg cycle has been underwhelming. One reason is its narrowness: sales at TSMC are up, but for the rest of the listed are flat.
Japan – part-time wages up The shunto is important for regular workers, but part-time workers are now also getting decent pay rises, a real sign that the labour market is tightening.
Japan – no JPY boost to export volumes The cheap JPY is boosting Japan's tourist inflows, but there continue to be no signs of the currency helping merchandise exports.