Paul Cavey

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QTC: Japan – still no growth in export volumes

June data show again that the fall in the exchange rate is boosting Japanese exports, but only via the translation effect into JPY. Export volumes aren't rising, with separate data showing little change in USD prices.

China – the end of muddle through slide pack

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QTC: China – can the PBC really resist this?

The PBC has been signalling unhappiness with falling rates. But as long as price inflation and money supply growth remain so weak, it is difficult to see why interest rates don't fall further still.

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QTC: Taiwan – the shift in FDI away from China

The June data are exaggerated by flows that are likely one-off, but still, Taiwan offers one of the clearest illustrations of how the direction of FDI is shifting away from China and towards the rest of Asia.

China – becoming trickier

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Last week, next week

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

China – deposits not as bearish as loans

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QTC: Japan – the BOJ's consumer dilemma

In the BOJ's Q2 survey, 65% of respondents saying they felt more positive cited higher incomes, an outcome helped by policy stimulus. But 90% of people saying they felt worse blamed higher prices, with low rates and the weak JPY also the result of policy.

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QTC: China – imports down, trade surplus up

Exports were flat in June. The big change was lower imports, and so a further rise in the trade surplus. Monday's data will likely show net exports once again boosted GDP growth in Q2.

China – the end of muddle through and the return of volatility

Korea – a slight move in the goalposts

Taiwan – still waiting for exports

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QTC: Taiwan – stronger wage growth

Today's May data confirm recent signs of wages recovering back to the stronger post-covid rate of growth, and so provide a reason for price inflation also to remain higher than before 2020.

Korea – labour market, and the BOK

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QTC: Japan – import inflation rising

The rebound in YoY import prices continued in June. The acceleration was base effect, but still, it suggests the recent rise in goods price inflation won't be reversing yet.

China – PPI firmer, core CPI not

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QTC: Taiwan – semi still sluggish

Taiwan's exports were a bit better in June. But they still aren't as strong as TSMC sales suggest they should be.

Japan – more evidence of a shift

Japan – stronger wages, less-weak activity

Last week, next week

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QTC: Japan – consumption a bit better

The BOJ's consumption index has ticked up so far in Q2. That is welcome, but even now, the index is 2% below the pre-covid level. Consumption remains the weak spot in the economy.

Taiwan – inflation still too high

China – a collection of counter-intuitive consumer cycle charts

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QTC: Japan – JGB net purchases falling

Latest data show that even before the BOJ makes its postponed decision about cutting gross new JGB purchases, on a net basis, the flow of new buying is already falling.

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QTC: China: PPI to 0%, but no more

Industrial prices in China have hardly changed since September 2023. So there isn't upstream price deflation...but equally, there are no signs of inflation either.