Paul Cavey

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QTC: Japan – consumer confidence encouraging

That consumer confidence has bounced while inflation expectations stay high is constructive, suggesting price hikes don't immediately impinge on sentiment in the way they used to. However, the recovery in consumer confidence remains modest: outside of crises, it has rarely been lower than August.

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QTC: China – three charts that stand out

In recent weeks there hasn't been much change in the overall macro narrative of "muddle through". But that masks some important shifts in the details, with three standing out: the surge in export volumes; the rebound in food prices; and the continued rapid shift of money into time deposits.

China – heavy industry still the big drag

Region – implications of a peaking export cycle

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QTC: Japan – services PPI inflation

There's nothing obvious in July SPPI to shift BOJ thinking. Core fell back YoY from June's multi-decade high of 3.1% to 2.7%, but rose sequentially from 1.5% to 1.9%. That's softer than recent months, but doesn't warn of a break in the gradual upwards trend. A few more charts are in the note.

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QTC: China – much stronger export volumes

I had been thinking China's export performance was solid more than spectacular. But data for June really challenge that idea.

China – inflation up, but only food

Last week, next week

China – the big shift is imports

Japan – services inflation still near 2%

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QTC: Taiwan – unemployment down again

While the monthly change in UE is small, the direction is clear, with the rate falling in July to a new 25-year low. That is happening even though participation is rising. This labour market tightness is supporting wages and means that unlike Korea, rate cuts are unlikely to be imminent in Taiwan.

Korea – yet closer to a cut

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QTC: Japan – PMI solid, but details diverge

The Aug flash services PMI ticked up, and more than the Reuters Tankan, points to a strong cycle. But the anecdotes were mixed, with optimism easing "amid concerns over labour constraints" and rising costs. Selling prices rose at the softest pace in 9M, even as input cost inflation rose.

Korea – doveish macro data

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QTC: Korea – cycle weak enough to cut

The BOK's BSI survey ticked down in August, but not in a way that changes the picture. The cycle has been weak enough to justify rate cuts for a while, with the hold-ups being CPI, the Fed and, occasionally, domestic housing prices. Currently, it is only housing that is flashing red.

Korea – house price expectations up again

China – what's with manufacturers going broke?

Last week, next week

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QTC: Taiwan – peaking outlook, but strong profile

In today's full Q2 release, officials kept the 24 GDP f'cast at 3.9%, saying “Exports are not bad, but just weaker than expected”. That characterisation is exactly right. But while cyclical momentum has been a bit disappointing, few other economies have a post-covid profile quite like Taiwan's.

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QTC: China – Capital outflows rise...maybe

These days, there doesn't seem to be any one indicator that can be used to summarise capital flows in and out of China. But the settlement data at least has been suggesting a rise in outflows, and today's numbers for July show that trend is intensifying.

China – still muddling through

China – perhaps a positive deflator in Q3

Japan – signs of recovery in consumption

Korea – labour market mildly doveish

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QTC: China – velocity still falling

The 6.6% YoY fall in M1 in July is unprecedented. The drop is partly because of regulatory changes, but those don't explain the continued rapid decline in M1 relative to M2, a change that strongly suggests no let-up in the deflationary pressure the economy is facing.