Paul Cavey

Weekly summary

China – May LPR

Taiwan – April export orders

It has been clear for a while that the Asian export cycle has peaked and is moderating. The sharp fall in Taiwan export orders in April is the first sign that the slowdown is not becoming much sharper.

Japan – April CPI

CPI rose in April, with the BOJ's preferred measure rising above 2% YoY for the first time in Governor Kuroda's tenure at the BOJ. The leads now suggest a peaking, which if right, would likely be positive for domestic economic momentum.

Japan – April exports

Japan – March machine orders

Japan - Q1 GDP

China – April property prices

The East Asia Economist

Neither the drop in Korean CPI before 2019, nor the demographic and deflationary experience of Japan, tells us anything definitive about the outlook for price trends in Korea. In fact, it is likely that the country's fiscal position allows Seoul to respond to ageing in a way that isn't deflationary.

China – where we're at

China – April activity

Chinese GDP is almost certainly contracting once again. The quality of the data makes it difficult to say how deep the fall is, but by my rough estimate, RGDP declined by perhaps 2-3% YoY in April.

Weekly summary

China - April credit

Japan – April EW survey

Korea - April labour market

China - April inflation

Food price inflation rose in April, pushing up overall CPI. But core remains subdued, and PPI inflation fell back.

China - weekly update

Taiwan - April exports

China - April foreign trade

Exports declined 6% MoM in April, the biggest fall in any normal month since April 2019. As they did then, the lockdowns probably explain some of the decline, and the leads, while clearly pointing down, don't point to the rate of decline in April being sustained. Still, this

Weekly summary

Japan - April Tokyo CPI

Overall CPI inflation in Tokyo rose to 2.5% YoY in April. The measure of all items less food, which is the official target for the BOJ, reached 1.9% YoY, which excluding the sales-tax boosted inflation of 2014, was the highest in several decades. A lot of this reflects

China - April services PMI

China - weekly update

Policy rhetoric is becoming easier, and FCI is easing. But there are two big headwinds to any of this having an impact: investor scepticism, and covid.

Taiwan - April PMI

Korea - April CPI