Paul Cavey

Taiwan – August CPI

Japan – July wages

The wage data don't change the macro picture. Wages are creeping up, but are rising less quickly than inflation. The labour market isn't yet tight enough for nominal wages to accelerate much more.

China – taking stock

Last week, next week

This is what happened on East Asia Econ this week. Region Different data in the last few days suggest the regional industrial cycle is now slowing quite sharply. That should bring down inflation too. China The August official PMIs gave no sign of a change in the economy. Growth remains

Korea – August CPI

Japan – consumer confidence

Korea - August exports

Taiwan – August PMI

The PMI suggests there's a big industrial cycle slowdown in the works. That is important for Taiwan and the TWD. Because it suggests more downside risk for the regional export cycle, the weaker PMI also has implications for Korea and China.

China - August PMI

The August official PMIs suggest no change in the economy. Growth remains weak, and doesn't look likely to turn up any time soon. Price indicators continue to suggest deflation is a bigger risk in China than inflation.

Japan – July labour market

Last week, next week

This is what happened on East Asia Econ this week. Region Updating with the latest inputs from July and our model shows the outlook for regional exports continues to worsen. That is particularly important for Taiwan and Korea, given the large share of exports in the economy. In China, the

Japan – inflation update

Different measures of inflation announced in the last few days show short-term inflation pressure remaining strong. Leading indicators suggest a peak in the next 6M, but that could be wrong if JPY commodity prices take another leg up, or services price inflation in Japan starts to appear.

Korea - August BOK decision

Korea – business sentiment

The business sentiment survey shows activity remains reasonably firm, while inflation momentum is fading. At a minimum, the pace of BOK tightening should be slowing.

Korea – August consumer confidence

China - taking stock

Today's rate cuts were focused on mortgages. That follows Q2, when home loan rates fell at the sharpest pace on record, and yet property remains weak. There likely needs to be more direct help for developers and consumers, and a more united policy showing from Beijing, to get the cycle going.

Region – foreign trade

Foreign trade data releases from Japan, Taiwan, and Korea today aren't entirely consistent, but it does look like exports are no longer growing, with signs of a slowdown in demand from the US beginning to appear.

Last week, next week

This is what happened on East Asia Econ this week. Region The continued fall in upstream inflation in China is important for the rest of the region: as an example, Chinese input prices tend to lead those in Korea. But the deflationary trend in China should also have implications for

Japan – July CPI

China – PPI and liquidity preference

Japan - recent data

Q2 GDP shows economic recovery remains slow and uneven, with downside risks in early Q3. Capex is rising, but really only in nominal terms. Exports are going sideways, though there might be some upside risk from autos. Relatively high inflation will likely peak soon. The monetary base is shrinking.

China – taking stock

The cycle is weak, and yet the market was surprised the PBC cut rates yesterday. Central bank rhetoric had been suggesting rates had bottomed. But low inflation and signs of rising real rates make it more likely that rates fall rather than rise.

China - July activity data

China - July credit data

Headline credit growth weakened in July, and even though M1 growth strengthened, the data don't suggest "stimulus" that can turn around the current trajectory of the economy.

Korea - July labour market