Paul Cavey

Korea – still slowing

Japan – tentative consumer turn

China - a floor?

The overall tone of today's PMIs suggests that China's cycle remains weak. However, the construction PMI rose again, and with the official headline manufacturing PMI and input prices creeping up, for the first time in a few months, there is some risk that the domestic industrial cycle is bottoming.

Korea - becoming more interesting

The business sentiment survey for October shows confidence continuing to fall, particularly in manufacturing. It is likely by the end of this year that, for the first time in this cycle, the strength of activity starts to become a concern for policymakers.

Korea - lower inflation expectations

China – taking stock

China – industrial prices stabilise

Taiwan - August IP and retail sales

Taiwan - not much tightening

Japan – CPI rising, BOJ on hold

BOJ trimmed mean inflation continues to rise, but the BOJ is keeping policy unchanged. With rates remaining anchored, the JPY continues to sell off. The MOF has been talking about "stealth intervention", but it is unclear if that includes pressure on the GPIF to unwind some of its foreign holdings.

Korea - better in September

Japan - inflation still rising

Taiwan - China orders dropping sharply

The East Asia Economist

Since the pandemic began, productivity has probably increased more quickly in Taiwan than any other major economy. As a result, Taiwan isn't facing the higher inflation and rates being experienced elsewhere. Taiwan's competitiveness instead reinforces structural trends for a stronger TWD.

China - not a firm floor

The headline data were a bit stronger in August, but the details remain weak. It doesn't feel that the government is yet doing enough to really turn the economy around.

Korea – goods v services prices

Japan - August foreign trade

Japan – PPI, business sentiment

China – taking stock

Overseas, the idea of Peak China is gaining traction, which is quite at odds with the full-on confidence in the further rise of China expressed by leaders in Beijing. The contradiction does suggest a need for policy change, but at least for now, that shift seems like the risk rather than base case.

Last week, next week

This is what happened on East Asia Econ this week. Region August export data for China, Korea and Taiwan dropped sharply. That makes it more likely that the industrial cycle is turning, with further weakness to be expected in the next few months. China The three data releases this week

China - August credit data

Monetary data in August remained weak, with little reason to suggest any upturn in the macro cycle.

China – August CPI/PPI

Food prices pose something of an upside risk, but underlying price trends, particularly in PPI, continue to look more deflationary than inflationary.

Japan – August Economy Watchers survey

The Economy Watchers survey rebounded in August, and is at a level consistent with mild GDP growth. But the survey isn't strong or stable enough to suggest an acceleration in the sluggish pace of the post-pandemic recovery.

Taiwan - August foreign trade

China - August foreign trade

Exports are now starting to slide. That's important given they've been the one bright spot for the economy in the last few months. Weakening external demand will mean China's cycle is even more challenged into 2023.