Paul Cavey

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Japan – steady consumption growth

Korea – unemployment up

China – weak credit

Japan – 3.5% core services CPI

The East Asia Economist

Last week, next week

This is what happened on East Asia Econ this week. Thematic The China Diviner: style over substance Policy statements have generated optimism of a shift in Beijing's economic strategy. But the language being used isn't so unusual, while the challenges the economy faces are. We still

Japan – (still) warming up

The China Diviner

Taiwan – industrial recession

Korea – inflation now turning

China – unsound footing

Last week, next week

This is what happened on East Asia Econ this week. Region The region's exports in November fell YoY for the first time since 2020. The weakness has so far been clearest in shipments into China, but exports to the US are now starting to fall quickly. With the

Taiwan – doveish hike

Region – export air pocket

Japan – waiting for hospitality

The Tankan points to GDP growth remaining tepid. It does, however, confirm other data showing services price inflation is beginning to emerge. That seems likely to at least persist as Asia opens up after covid, challenging BOJ claims that inflation in Japan is all about energy prices.

China – another bad month

Korea – a clear turn

China – taking stock

China – not much money

Japan – still sluggish

Japan's cycle remains sluggish, partly because of import price inflation, though that receded in November. In theory, post-covid opening up of the economy should add momentum to the modest wage and service price inflation being seen. But that feels optimistic given softening business sentiment.

China – backward looking

Inflation was soft in November, but with the exit from covid dramatically changing the short-term outlook for the economy, these price data are backward looking. Just how much core CPI can now rise will be indicated by inflation expectations and liquidity preference.

Taiwan – hitting a wall

The last time exports dropped as quickly as they have recently was in the global financial crisis in 2008-09. This time around, the fall does come after a particularly large increase. Even so, with exports falling and inflation low, further rate hikes are unlikely, and cuts are possible.

China – ouch

Japan – incrementally stronger wages

Modest wage growth is gradually accelerating. Labour market dynamics are consistent with that continuing. There is upside risk, but that remains the same as it has been the last few months: normalisation of the economy after covid.