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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Paul Cavey
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China – what have we learnt?
The bond swap does represent substantive policy. But there still isn't support for consumption, so this does look like an effort to put a floor under growth, rather than produce a new upcycle. And while that will probably be successful, stability will be endangered by a new round of Trump tariffs.
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China – still in deflation
There might be some signs of better sentiment feeding into prices, but they aren't strong. Core sequential CPI inflation did get back to zero in October, but the 3mma remains negative. Despite the jump in PMI input prices last month, PPI also continues to fall.
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Japan – consumption moderates through Q3
Today's release from the BOJ of consumption activity through September is so-so, with a further moderation from the pick-up seen in June and July. As such, it isn't suggesting a repeat of the pick-up in household consumption that boosted Q2 GDP.
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China – the consumption challenge
A chart pack arguing that consumption hasn't been as weak as is often imagined, but that downside risks are growing as wage and property income falls. Policy solutions need to overcome the weakness of non-wage incomes, the strength of savings, and the pro-investment official mindset.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
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Taiwan – services driving growth
I thought the drop in the mfg PMIs in October might have been noise. But the November data show it is more than that, remaining weak in both Taiwan and Korea. Korea's exports today fell too. That makes the domestic cycle more important, and in Taiwan, that looks more resilient than Korea.
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Japan – BOJ gets back to labour and wages
The boxes in the BOJ's full outlook report that look at the labour market and wages don't suggest any weakening of the bank's underlying confidence – increasingly evident before July – that Japan's inflation is sustainable. The implication is that rate hikes remain on the agenda.
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Region – consumption is weak, but not where you think
Some analysis of the weakness of consumption in Asia. As the opening chart suggests, the big underperformer isn't either China or Japan, but rather Korea. The clear outperformer is Taiwan.
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Korea – export downturn
More evidence today that the export cycle has at least peaked, with a sharp slowdown in shipments in October, and another weak PMI. Equity market performance points to there being worse ahead.
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Taiwan – still leading pack
While consumption and the leading indicator have warned of cycle moderation, today's data show GDP growth ticked up QoQ in Q3, led by capex. With TSMC still bullish, Taiwan continues to have one of the strongest cycles, making it unlikely the central bank follows the global trend of rate cuts.
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Japan – no surprises from the BOJ
No surprises from the BOJ (yet): the July forecast for underlying inflation to remain around 2% was maintained, as was the policy caution since August that stresses uncertainty in outlook for the US. There's still the press conference and full outlook report to come.
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China – PMIs: still a lot to do
Likely driven by the sentiment-driven rise in prices, the manufacturing PMI bounced back above 50 in October. But there was barely any change in either the services or construction, PMIs, and both will need to improve to think that the economy really is turning around.
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China – employment still very weak
We'll find out more with tomorrow's official PMIs, but while the CKGSB survey for October does show an uptick in overall sentiment, the measure for employment remains very weak. With profits terrible in September, it is clear policy needs to do a lot to turn the cycle around.
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Japan – high inflation not killing consumer confidence
Headline consumer confidence ticked down in October, led by pensioners. But the overall survey continues to send a constructive message for the BOJ. That's because consumer confidence remains relatively firm, even as inflation expectations show no sign of receding.
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Japan – supply constrains labour demand
UE ticked down in September as the part rate fell. Employment hardly changed at all. There probably isn't much room for changes on the demand-side, as demographic constraints on supply become more binding. A negative shock will show up as rising UE, but firm demand will materialise as higher wages.
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Taiwan – inflation expectations up, consumer confidence down
Shifts in consumer confidence mirror almost exactly changes in inflation expectations. Given that, it is no surprise with data today showing inflation expectations ticking up, so consumer confidence edged down. The details show consumers happy with the economy, but less confident about employment.
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China – profits fall sharply in September
The government yesterday published its monthly series for the profits of the industrial sector. I am always a bit sceptical of the quality of these data. But if you want a trigger for the recent macro policy push, then the sharp fall in profits in September fits the bill.
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Last week, next week
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Subscribers Only
Japan – core inflation still at 2%
With the BOJ emphasising the twice-yearly patten of service prices hikes, with the second round falling in October, today's Tokyo CPI data are important. They do show services prices rising, and although the details are messy, core sequential inflation in Tokyo is also continuing to run near 2%.
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Japan – services PMI drops below 50
The flash services PMI dropped sharply in October, and with mfg is now below 50. There was a similar drop in June that then reversed, and while the press release doesn't suggest any new factor, the Reuters nonmfg Tankan, which also fell, suggested some noise from unstable weather and a stronger yen.
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Korea – sluggish growth, but weakening KRW
If the BOK was only looking at growth, then data today would give it plenty of room to cut faster, with both Q3 GDP and October business sentiment weak. However, the rise in US rates and consequent weakening of $KRW will be starting to constrain the bank once again.
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China – crunch time for consumption
The slump in confidence and retail sales don't indicate a major cyclical weakening of consumption. That's partly because households have been running down excess savings from covid. But with savings now normalising, consumption is becoming more vulnerable to the deterioration in the labour market.
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Korea – no surprises in consumer confidence
In today's October survey, overall sentiment remained around the long-term average, inflation expectations didn't pick up, and property price expectations ticked down. There's no reason here for the BOK to become hawkish, or to accelerate the gradual pace of cuts that is currently its intention.
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Asia – the big shift in exports
The export data across the region continue to show an enormous shift in the direction of trade. Exports to China haven't recovered following the post-pandemic slump. Where there is growth, it is all about the US.