Formally launching my data API, which now allows access to almost 700,000 series covering China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan, with monthly, quarterly and annual data.
Korea's current account reached a record high in Q4. But equity outflows, remarkably, increased even more. The balance between the two should diverge through 2026. The CA surplus can be expected to grow on the back of the semi supercycle, while there are four reasons to think net outflow should peak
Weekly flow data show a moderation of overseas bond acquisitions by Japanese buyers – but that don't show whether they are now selling overseas and buying JGBs. FX reserve accumulation in Taiwan remains modest. Inflation fell in January, but that is related to Chinese New Year.
China's S&P services PMI was solid again in January, and Japan's was strong. High-frequency data for China suggest PPI was unchanged MoM in January for the seventh consecutive month. That stability reflects global factors, but also domestic policy, with the PBC last month again increasing liquidity.
A chart pack summarising developments in China and Korea.
Japan's monetary base continues to shrink, though it is still at 90% of GDP. CPI inflation in Korea remains around the 2% target, and given the outlook for exports, is now unlikely to fall further.
Korea's January exports were boosted by workdays and chips. However, the rise in the manufacturing PMIs in Japan, Korea and Taiwan last month suggest some broadening of the cycle. China's PMIs were more mixed. They did show better nominal momentum, but that lift reflected global metals prices.
Regional themes: continuing (and under-appreciated) nominal improvement in China; election uncertainty in Japan; strengthening export momentum in Korea on the back of chips; which in turn looks significant given the huge outperformance of Taiwan through 2025, all because of AI and semiconductors.
Today's official PMIs were below 50. That shows the domestic economy is weak – though the data were likely pulled down by the coming holiday. More interesting was the further rise in prices in manufacturing. That change relates to USD/global prices, but does suggest an upturn in nominal momentum.
Lots of cycle updates today, with all the month-end data for Japan and Korea, as well as Q4 GDP data for Taiwan, which was another blow-out. China's main data release today showed service exports rising, though not nearly as quickly as exports of goods.
With policy efforts reducing headline inflation, the bullish case for Japan is once again a rise in real wages that pushes up consumer spending and aggregate demand. The consumer confidence survey points to just that scenario, but it isn't in the hard data yet, with December retail sales still soft.
Today's data releases show the domestic economy bottoming out, but not yet growing much. The upside risk rests on 1) exports, which the BOK in its last official forecast thought would only grow 1.4% in 2026 and 2) capex, with Samsung and SK Hynix this week pledging big increases.
Japan consumer confidence and export data show a further lessening of the two big negative shocks of 2025. Consumer confidence has bounced in Korea too, but that isn't based on a strengthening labour market. Also today, an announcement: subscribers can now access all our data via an API.
In light of Trump's threats against South Korea, an update on tariff levels in the region. Levies on China are highest, but China's USD export prices have been rangebound for 18M, and the stability of PPI in 2H25 has continued into 2026. Finally, my latest video discussing fiscal fear in Japan.
My latest video, discussing the work I've been doing looking at Japan's fiscal position.
Data releases everywhere today: industrial profits in China; services PPI inflation in Japan; business sentiment through February in Korea; and Taiwan's leading indicator and consumer confidence.
Some of the slowdown in services PPI inflation is due to lower goods price inflation, but the combined result points to softer downstream inflation. SPPI inflation in high labour-intensive sectors is still over 3% YoY, but the recent MoM run-rate of under 2% is too low for the BOJ's inflation target
Headline business sentiment has improved to take the BOK back towards neutral. But the details are mixed, with Korea's recovery more K-shaped than it has been before. With the semi cycle lifting exports, the BOK is now unlikely to ease further, but the bank still needs to see more domestic recovery.
An update on visitor arrivals across the region, the quarterly household, business and banker sentiment surveys from the PBC, and insights from the BOJ's full outlook report that was released today.
The BOJ's full outlook report that was released today includes analysis arguing that the pass-through from JPY to CPI has risen, reflecting not only greater direct effects, "but also stronger secondary spillover effects, such as more active wage- and price-setting behavior of firms"
Like the actual monthly deposit data, Friday's PBC Q425 depositor survey shows a slowing of the flood of household savings into the safety of bank deposits. The structural deflation pressure caused by the collapse of real estate activity and the chaos of the covid lockdowns is beginning to ease.
Is a ceiling forming for $Asia? Three developments are helpful: CNY fixing strengthening through 7; more US interest in Asia under-valuation; visible concern in Tokyo about weakness in both the JPY and JGBs.
The BOJ didn't say much new today, but the authorities overall did make more of an attempt to put a lid on recent market volatility. In Korea, both consumer confidence and house price expectations remain strong. Taiwan retail sales slowed into end 2025, but IP took another step up.
At its meeting today, the BOJ was again more positive on the outlook, but only incrementally. However, the authorities overall have been trying to put a lid on market volatility, perhaps via intervention, but also an interview by Takaichi. Data, meanwhile, show the economy still has good momentum.
Exports and the BOJ's senior loan officer survey in Japan; lending standards and Q4 GDP in Korea; and Taiwan's labour market data for December.