Public Post Japan – happier households Today's Q1 BOJ consumer survey shows sentiment about income rising to the highest level in 20 years.
Public Post Korea – the ageing workforce Demographics are really having a big impact on the composition of employment.
Public Post Korea – labour market still tight Data today show Korea employment did tick down in March, but the unemployment rate remaining below 3%, the lowest since the 1990s.
Public Post China – no inflection yet in PPI China should be close to an inflection in PPI, but the turn didn't happen in March. PPI fell 2.8% YoY, a rate of deflation that hasn't changed much since August 2023.
Public Post China – core CPI weak, but not negative The pick-up in core CPI from late 2023 hasn't persisted, dropping back to +0.7% in March. That is consistent with the post-covid performance, and a step down from the pre-2020 average of nearly 2%.
Public Post Korea – no change in export momentum Data for the first 10 days of April don't show an acceleration of the mild export recovery of the last few months. That matters for the BOK when domestic demand is also weak.
Public Post Taiwan – nominal exports still so-so YoY export growth did accelerate in March to almost 20%, the highest since early 2022. But in level terms, the recovery remains rather sluggish.
Public Post Japan – upstream prices still high If there was supposed to be goods price disinflation in Japan, it didn't last long, and didn't make much difference to the level of either import or producer prices.
Public Post Taiwan – highest services inflation since the 1990s Even after a deep and long export recession, services inflation in Taiwan is still running at the highest rate since the late 1990s.
Public Post Taiwan – core inflation re-accelerates Data today show core CPI inflation accelerated to an annualised 3% in March. No wonder the central bank raised rates last month.
Public Post Japan – cycle retains momentum The EW survey in March fell MoM, but remains well above the long-term average, and continues to point to better GDP growth.
Public Post Japan – no consumer rebound yet As in China, consumption has been the big macro drag in Japan. That should change in 2024, but BOJ data through February show no turnaround yet.
Public Post China – few currencies weaker With a weak cycle, policy is being loosened. But given China's obvious industrial strengths, it is still striking how much the CNY has weakened.
Public Post Japan – output gap closes Japan's negative output gap has finally closed! But that has taken 14 quarters, and even now, the BOJ calculates the positive output gap is just 0.02%.
Public Post China – firm services At 52.7 in March, the S&P Global services PMI for China is firm, above the post-2012 series average. The write-up feels better still, reporting firms being "enthused".
Public Post Japan – strong services PMI Quick Take chart. Japan's services PMI shows re-acceleration, with firms reporting a "sustained rise" in jobs and inflationary pressures remaining 'marked'
Public Post China – is that it for easing? Quick Take Chart. PBC lending to the financial sector via the PSL facility fell in March. The decline was small, and might be temporary. But at the least, the PBC isn't doubling down.
