Public Post Korea – no change in export momentum Data for the first 10 days of April don't show an acceleration of the mild export recovery of the last few months. That matters for the BOK when domestic demand is also weak.
Public Post Taiwan – nominal exports still so-so YoY export growth did accelerate in March to almost 20%, the highest since early 2022. But in level terms, the recovery remains rather sluggish.
Public Post Japan – upstream prices still high If there was supposed to be goods price disinflation in Japan, it didn't last long, and didn't make much difference to the level of either import or producer prices.
Public Post Taiwan – highest services inflation since the 1990s Even after a deep and long export recession, services inflation in Taiwan is still running at the highest rate since the late 1990s.
Public Post Taiwan – core inflation re-accelerates Data today show core CPI inflation accelerated to an annualised 3% in March. No wonder the central bank raised rates last month.
Public Post Japan – cycle retains momentum The EW survey in March fell MoM, but remains well above the long-term average, and continues to point to better GDP growth.
Public Post Japan – no consumer rebound yet As in China, consumption has been the big macro drag in Japan. That should change in 2024, but BOJ data through February show no turnaround yet.
Public Post China – few currencies weaker With a weak cycle, policy is being loosened. But given China's obvious industrial strengths, it is still striking how much the CNY has weakened.
Public Post Japan – output gap closes Japan's negative output gap has finally closed! But that has taken 14 quarters, and even now, the BOJ calculates the positive output gap is just 0.02%.
Public Post China – firm services At 52.7 in March, the S&P Global services PMI for China is firm, above the post-2012 series average. The write-up feels better still, reporting firms being "enthused".
Public Post Japan – strong services PMI Quick Take chart. Japan's services PMI shows re-acceleration, with firms reporting a "sustained rise" in jobs and inflationary pressures remaining 'marked'
Public Post China – is that it for easing? Quick Take Chart. PBC lending to the financial sector via the PSL facility fell in March. The decline was small, and might be temporary. But at the least, the PBC isn't doubling down.
Public Post Japan – inflation pressures remain broad Quick Take Chart. Details of the BOJ's Tankan don't show a lessening of inflation. Rather, price pressures are warming up in non-manufacturing, and re-accelerating in manufacturing.
Public Post Japan – Tankan suggests higher inflation Lower energy subsidies will push up headline inflation in Japan in the coming months. More interesting is that output prices in the BOJ's Tankan survey point to underlying inflation also heading higher.
Public Post Korea – inflation slowing Headline inflation ticked up in March, but underlying measures slowed. Prices are still rising by over the BOK's 2% target, but the trend slowdown will allow the central bank to give more attention to the weak economy.
Public Post Taiwan – PMI still below 50 Taiwan's mfg PMI improved in March, but remained below 50. That means mfg in a mfg-led economy has now been contracting for almost two years, and yet unemployment is at 20-year lows, and core inflation at 20-year highs.
