Public Post Korea – inflation expectations up Consumer confidence fell in May, which would reinforce BOK concern about domestic demand. But the bank seems stuck for now because inflation expectations also rebounded.
Public Post Taiwan – export orders also better Export orders rose in April, but continue to trail actual exports. One reason could be supply-chain restructuring, shown by the fall in the overseas production ratio.
Public Post Taiwan – better sales in April This year's expected manufacturing pick-up has been patchy, but perhaps that is changing, with much stronger listed company sales in April, led by tech.
Public Post China – broad-based pick-up in IP growth IP growth remains the bright spot in China's economy, with the pick-up in April being broad-based across industries.
Public Post China – no turnaround in all-economy prices Today's property price data for April weakened again. With PPI and CPI remaining weak too, the bounce in equity prices hasn't been enough to change the all-economy rate of deflation.
Public Post China – still expecting PPI to rebound The April PPI data were soft, but the government's higher-frequency series for industrial prices, updated today for the first 10 days of May, continues to suggest a lessening of deflation.
Public Post Region – import price inflation returns External goods price disinflation is now over, with import prices now rising again across the region. That is likely to feed into stronger PPI, even in China.
Public Post China – exports not quite so all-conquering In contrast to the common impression, China's global market share has been falling. Whether this is just a pause after the covid surge or something more permanent will be a big theme in 2024 for China's cycle, the CNY and China's trade relations with ROW.
Public Post Korea – exports stronger so far in May On a headline basis, export growth accelerated again in the first ten days of May. That keeps alive the theme of industrial recovery, even if some of the details continue to look more sluggish.
Public Post Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Public Post China – mortgage rates still falling fast Data in yesterday's Q1 monetary policy report showed another sharp fall in mortgage rates to well below 4%. But while they worked before, rate cuts in this cycle have shown no sign yet of boosting buyer sentiment.
Public Post China – core inflation low but stable Core CPI inflation continues to run at a bit below 1% annualised. That is too low for comfort, though for now doesn't show any sign of taking a new step down into deflation.
Public Post Taiwan – wage growth slower in March Cyclically, wage growth has slowed from over 2.5% YoY in 23 to 1.4% now. But the structural rise in manufacturing wage growth is persisting, which will have macro significance if the sector convincingly lifts out of recession.
Public Post Japan – households lead sentiment lower There was quite a big fall in the EW survey in April, a warning that recent JPY volatility might be pushing up inflation expectations again.
Public Post Japan – another weak consumption indicator While a bit stronger than the beginning of this year, the household survey shows real consumption spending still 2% lower than in 2019.
Public Post China – construction up, manufacturing down Another chart that challenges the idea that the structure of China's economy has changed much. Relative to GDP, construction is rebounding, while manufacturing is falling.
