Overall exports, and the trade surplus with the US, continued to surge in June. That Taiwan nonetheless wasn't the recipient of a Trump letter may be because of the sharp rise in the TWD. Other data today show that helping to push down inflation, opening up space for interest rate cuts.
Japan in 2025 has suffered two negative shocks: tariffs, and a rebound in CPI that's eroded real incomes. June surveys, such as today's EW, show the household mood starting to improve as the price shock wanes. But that won't matter if Trump proceeds with the yet higher tariffs he's now threatening.
Nominal wage growth remains firm, but real wages to continue to fall. That in turn is weighing on consumption, which other data today show remained sluggish in May. The cycle in 2H will likely depend on goods prices, because that will determine the strength of real wage growth and consumer spending.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
10-day industrial prices ticked up a bit at the end of June, helped by energy. But building material and ferrous prices continued to drop, and with the higher base from last year, it still seems likely that next Wednesday's data will show headline PPI deflation worsened again in June.
At USD5.5bn, June's rise in reserves wasn't as big as May's USD10bn. But it is the first time since 2020 that reserves have grown by over USD5bn for two months running. If lifers/corporates are less willing to recycle the rising trade surplus, the CBC has to step in – or the TWD strengthens more.
A comprehensive slide pack putting cyclical developments in the context of the structural themes I've been working on: 1) China, CNY v consumption; 2) Japan, Still looking different this time; 3) Korea, Becoming East Asian and 4) Taiwan, 1980s redux.
The renewed tariff threat is a dominating issue for Japan. Yesterday's debate among leaders of the political parties didn't reveal any new strategy to head off the risk. But today's services PMI was firm, and in an interesting speech, board member Takata continued to sound cautiously constructive.
In the Caixin services PMI, like the official version, both data and anecdotes are weak. "Staffing levels were lowered in June...linked to a slowdown in new order growth and concerns over costs", and "intense market competition" led to selling prices being cut at the sharpest pace since April 2022"
Leads suggest the mild rise in headline CPI in June should now fade. Core inflation is more stable, in part because services inflation remains on the high side. In next week's meeting, the BOK is unlikely to show much concern about that, with the focus instead being the rebound in property prices.
In terms of inflation, the details of the Tankan were stronger than yesterday's headlines. Output prices – a good lead for underlying CPI – rose to another new post-1980 high. However, President Trump, as had seemed likely, is now threatening Japan with yet higher tariffs.
In recent months, Japan has encountered two headwinds: higher tariffs which threaten exports, and rebounding inflation which reduces consumer purchasing power. Inflation expectations eased in June, allowing consumer confidence to rebound. That is helpful in offsetting the pain coming from tariffs.
Today's full-month June export statistics show exports finally breaking out of the range of recent months. I wouldn't think that will continue. It is all because of semi, big exporters like Samsung, Kia and Hyundai haven't benefited from the recent Kospi rally, and exporter sentiment remains weak.
The Caixin PMI rose above 50 in June, but only to 50.4. Comments remained cautious. "Firms were generally cautious with hiring on the back of cost control". A "fourth monthly reduction in average input costs" was shared with clients, "resulting in another decline in average selling prices measures"
For reasons I have yet to understand, the BOJ's Tankan is published over two days, so we won't get the full picture until tomorrow. But first impressions from today's summary are quite strong, with business sentiment holding up, and only small deteriorations in prices and employment.
Inflation is likely declining, the labour market continues to weaken, and business confidence remains poor. So the fundamentals are weak. But consumer confidence, the DRAM price, Kopsi and house prices have all rebounded. The latter changes the BOK outlook. Further rate cuts will take longer.
Recent data show investment fell in 2024 to under 40% for the first time since 2008. On the flip side, consumption edged up, helped by a stabilisation of the savings ratio and a rise in welfare spending. But none of these changes are happening fast enough to boost the cycle.
At a headline level, the industrial PMIs were better in June, but the details were weak, and there was no improvement in the services PMI. The rise in the credit impulse is taking away some of the downside risk for the cycle, but there aren't indications that the cycle is about to really improve.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
A review of the cycle, and three scenarios for the BOJ: 1) no more hikes; 2) hikes on the back of a firm nominal cycle, and 3) tightening because it is already too far behind the curve. My base case is 2, but the factors to watch are tariffs, the labour market, and the continued weakness of the JPY.
Consumers aren't sure that inflation is easing, with price expectations remaining strong in June. But with consumer confidence down and other data today showing the monitoring index falling, the CBC won't be thinking inflation is about to bounce back.
Profits fell 9% YoY in May, and are now close to 5% of GDP, a level that's only been breached twice in the last 15 years. The driver is more demand- than supply-side, in the sense that the upstream profits, hit by the property downturn, are weakest. But even in machinery, profits aren't rising.
I'm just starting to catch up with things, and one of the first things I've made sure to look through is yesterday's speech by BOJ Monetary Policy Board member Naoki Tamura. He doesn't represent the majority view, but his speeches are well worth reading, and this one was no exception.
A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Given regional history, China's transition to exporting more capital goods shouldn't be unexpected. More unusual is that 1) this transition hasn't been accompanied by slower overall export growth, and 2) has occurred at the same time as a sharp slowing of imports. Chart pack attached.