Public Post China – still expecting PPI to rebound The April PPI data were soft, but the government's higher-frequency series for industrial prices, updated today for the first 10 days of May, continues to suggest a lessening of deflation.
Public Post Region – import price inflation returns External goods price disinflation is now over, with import prices now rising again across the region. That is likely to feed into stronger PPI, even in China.
Public Post China – exports not quite so all-conquering In contrast to the common impression, China's global market share has been falling. Whether this is just a pause after the covid surge or something more permanent will be a big theme in 2024 for China's cycle, the CNY and China's trade relations with ROW.
Public Post Korea – exports stronger so far in May On a headline basis, export growth accelerated again in the first ten days of May. That keeps alive the theme of industrial recovery, even if some of the details continue to look more sluggish.
Public Post Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.
Public Post China – mortgage rates still falling fast Data in yesterday's Q1 monetary policy report showed another sharp fall in mortgage rates to well below 4%. But while they worked before, rate cuts in this cycle have shown no sign yet of boosting buyer sentiment.
Public Post China – core inflation low but stable Core CPI inflation continues to run at a bit below 1% annualised. That is too low for comfort, though for now doesn't show any sign of taking a new step down into deflation.
Public Post Taiwan – wage growth slower in March Cyclically, wage growth has slowed from over 2.5% YoY in 23 to 1.4% now. But the structural rise in manufacturing wage growth is persisting, which will have macro significance if the sector convincingly lifts out of recession.
Public Post Japan – households lead sentiment lower There was quite a big fall in the EW survey in April, a warning that recent JPY volatility might be pushing up inflation expectations again.
Public Post Japan – another weak consumption indicator While a bit stronger than the beginning of this year, the household survey shows real consumption spending still 2% lower than in 2019.
Public Post China – construction up, manufacturing down Another chart that challenges the idea that the structure of China's economy has changed much. Relative to GDP, construction is rebounding, while manufacturing is falling.
Public Post Japan – no consumption recovery yet PMIs, CPI, wages, profits....most macro indicators look positive. The one weak spot remains consumption, with little sign of improvement through March.
Public Post China – moderate export recovery Underlying trade values show the moderate export recovery that began in mid-23 is continuing, while imports are flat-lining.
Public Post Taiwan – export recovery falters in April The nominal export recovery across the region has lost momentum, with Taiwan's April exports fading YoY and MoM.
Public Post China – has anything really changed? It is often thought that China is transforming into a mfg-led, services-light economy. Relative growth did slow post-15. However, as a proportion of GDP, the services sector has never been bigger.
Public Post Region – perhaps the weak KRW helps as well It seems reasonable to think the cheap JPY is contributing to Japan's tourism boom. But Korea's visitor numbers are also closing in on pre-covid levels. Recovery in Taiwan, by contrast, is lagging.
