Public Post China – PPI firming further in June 10D prices show YoY PPI is on track to turn positive in June. That might, though, be it: MoM prices have ticked down so far this month, with the YoY rise all about the base effect.
Public Post QTC: China – liquidity preference down again Regulatory changes are causing big swings in deposit data, so caution is needed. But looking at M1 in relation to M2 should cancel some of the noise, so the fall in that ratio is concerning.
Public Post QTC: Japan – tight labour market, strong capex In today's Q2 BSI survey, overall sentiment didn't change much. But firms continued to report record levels of worker insufficiency, and capex intentions remained strong.
Public Post QTC: Korea – exports solid not spectacular The export data for the first 10 days tell the same story as other recent indicators: there is an export recovery, but it is modest, and doesn't look to be gaining further momentum.
Public Post QTC: Japan – inflation bites The fall in the EW survey isn't surprising given higher inflation. But it shows the BOJ's dilemma: keep policy loose as aggregate demand is weak, or normalise to try to lift the JPY and real incomes.
Public Post QTC: China – consumption share highest since 2005 Consumption isn't as weak as consumer confidence suggests: recently released full-year 2023 data show the consumption share surpassing – albeit only slightly – pre-covid levels.
Public Post QTC: China – investment falls, savings don't Recently released FoF data for 2022 confirms no big change in household savings. But investment fell as spending on housing dropped. It should be no surprise the CA surplus has been widening.
Public Post QTC: China – no balance sheet recession China has released flow of funds data for 2022. If anything, they show an economy looking even less like one in BS recession, with the corporate finance reaching a record high.
Public Post QTC: Japan – BOJ's JGB holdings falling The BOJ might well formally change its bond buying programme next week. However, even before that, net buying of JGBs has already turned negative, as the scale of redemptions rises.
Public Post QTC: Japan – consumption still weak The BOJ's monthly estimate shows consumption a bit higher in Q2 compared to Q1. But that doesn't change the big picture: consumption is still 4% below the pre-covid peak.
Public Post QTC: Taiwan – core inflation still high The step-change in core inflation in Taiwan during covid has yet to dissipate. And it seems unlikely to do so, if the export cycle accelerates as quickly as some of the leads suggest.
