The annual survey of firm behaviour in Japan's shows the structural rise in inflation expectations is continuing. Today's official February PMI in Taiwan points to higher input prices even before the oil price hit. Like the rest of the region, the PMI also shows strengthening cycle momentum.
Expected inflation rose in the Cabinet Office's annual firm survey. The backdrop is stable growth, and strong capex and hiring intentions – and rising wages. This is different from when the Ukraine war started in 2022, and suggests there is a real inflationary risk for Japan from the Iran conflict.
Today's quarterly business sentiment survey from the Cabinet Office and MOF in Japan shows the same bounce in manufacturing confidence that has been visible in the different monthly surveys. Korean job openings for January were weak, but that could reflect this year's rebasing of the data.
The big dynamic in Asia in early 2026 has been the strength of the semi cycle. That can be seen in today's Japan February export prices, and Korea March 10-day March exports. That provides some offset to the rise in energy prices, though not enough to matter if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Jan-Feb trade data for China were strong, but still distorted by LNY. Q4 GDP in Japan was revised up, boosted by rising private domestic demand. Korean GDP contracted in Q4, but an improving ToT boosted real incomes. TSMC sales dipped in February, but equities don't yet point to a big downturn.
Exports in YoY and SA terms were strong in Jan-Feb. That looks too good to be true, and I'd expect new year distortions won't totally disappear until March. Still, one trend that looks real is the rise in chip exports, as China benefits from the same semi super cycle lifting the rest of the region.
The backdrop to the latest oil price surge is different to that of 2022. Then, wages were barely rising. This time, wage growth is at least 2%, and not slowing. With cycle momentum picking up too, there is more of a risk that a Middle East war (if it is short) further raises nominal momentum.
A few data releases today: inflation in China; economic sentiment, bank loans and BOP in Japan; foreign trade and monitoring index in Taiwan. The lessening of deflation in China is an underlying change. The other data are distorted by the Chinese New Year, and will now be shifted by the Iran war.
Deflation momentum continued to lessen in February, a trend that will now be given a further boost by global oil prices. But with this shift in the direction of deflation being driven by external factors, it isn't based on the sort of improvement in domestic growth that is needed for sustainability.
With activity and inflation in East Asia picking up before the war started, the extra push to prices from the conflict will be important for the near-term policy outlook if tensions subside quickly. Right now, the bigger risk seems to be a real supply shock that causes a demand shock too.
Underlying inflation in Taiwan is catching up with the Korean run-rate of 2%. The CA surplus in Korea is starting to follow the sharp rise in the surplus in Taiwan. Consumption in Japan is showing stronger momentum.
The CA surplus was strong in January, but while NPS outflows eased, retail buying of offshore equities remained high. Core inflation ticked up to 2.3% YoY, but that was related to holiday spending. The impact of the Middle East war will only start to be seen from March data.
Before the Iran war, Taiwan's industrial sector was strongest, and leading indicators pointed to further acceleration. But in terms of broad recovery, prospects in Japan looked best, with industrial sentiment rising, but consumer confidence rebounding too.
While the big news is the bloodbath in markets, particularly Korea, there were lots of data releases today. They show that before the Iran war, economic momentum was good in Japan and Taiwan, and poor in Korea. In China, it could be either, depending on which PMI you believe.
The S&P/RatingDog PMIs suggest an economy that is finally recovering. The official PMIs, by contrast, indicate continued sluggishness. I am inclined to think there is no change, at least until the LNY impact fades. The one common theme is firmer input prices, even before an energy price shock.
Lots of charts on Japan, on profits, capex, and unemployment. Also, highlights from today's PMI for Korea. That is solid, but not as strong as in Japan and Taiwan. Like Taiwan, however, the Korean PMI points to rising price pressures – and that even before a new oil price shock.
The Q4 data showed corporate profits and capex remaining strong, but little change in firms' huge cash holdings. The labour share has bottomed, but isn't rising. Separate data show unemployment creeping up, which will become a bigger concern if the war with Iran causes a cycle problem.
The latest Middle East war might change everything again. But before the latest conflict, Asia's manufacturing cycle was accelerating. That's clear with the chip-led export surge in Korea in February, and the stronger manufacturing PMIs for Taiwan and Japan.
The big theme in focus last week was current account surpluses, which across the region are both large and structural. There will be some downside risk if the latest problems in the Middle East cause oil prices to spike. Otherwise, the surpluses remain a fundamental reason for currency appreciation.
A few secondary data points in Japan: Tokyo CPI, retail sales and IP. Also, with both Korea and Taiwan releasing January data, a couple of charts on tourism. Finally, just to let you know that I am travelling the next couple of weeks. The daily will still appear, but there might be some disruption.
My framework for this year is an easing of tariff and price shocks that give a boost to domestic activity. Today's February data for Tokyo show the fall in headline inflation in January is persisting. Retail sales in January did jump, but these data can be noisy. IP is trending up, but slowly.
The big policy event today was the BOM meeting. The big data release was Taiwan's Q4 BOP data, showing a huge current account surplus. Also worth noting today are trade data for Japan for the first 10 days of February. And we also have a new video, discussing the cyclical outlook for China.
The surge in the current account surplus of January-September continued into the end of 2025. In Q4, the surplus reached almost 30% of GDP. The government's GDP forecast implies that will be roughly the size of the full-year surplus in 2026. Taiwan needs huge capital outflows to keep the TWD stable.
The tone from today's BOK meeting was cautious. The new rate dot plot suggests that at the margin risks for policy are still weighted towards loosening, the upgrade to the GDP growth forecast was only 0.2ppts, and having made that change, the bank thinks risks to the outlook are now balanced.
Highlights of a longer note summarising Korea's cycle before the BOK meeting tomorrow. Also today, Korea's IIP position in 2025, as well as services PPI inflation in Japan and labour market data for Taiwan in January.