Paul Cavey
East Asia Today
The main release today was Korean CPI inflation for August, which remained firm. Japan tax revenue ticked down last month, but the uptrend of recent years remains intact. However, the monetary base is falling fast. Also today, a comprehensive guide and online model to Japan's fiscal position.
East Asia Today
A busy day of data today, with regional PMIs, Q2 profits data for Japan, and foreign trade in August for Korea. Japan is leading in both relative manufacturing activity and prices. Taiwan activity is also strong, and not benefiting from the ccy appreciation that is dampening input prices in Korea.
Region – Japan leading
The PMIs show Japan's manufacturing cycle is the strongest in the region. That might be because the measures in Taiwan and Korea struggle to capture the macro impact of chip strength. Even so, it is still an important take-away, especially when the PMIs show Japan also leads in price strength.
Japan – mfg mini-boom
Defying BOJ fears of a slowdown, this year's surge in corporate profits continued in Q2. The big driver this year has been manufacturing, and today's PMI shows the recovery in the sector isn't over yet. Relative to the strength of profits, capex and wages are sluggish.
Korea – strong July
Output in July retained the gains of June, and capex spending rose further. Both suggest a strong start for GDP in Q3. Retail sales were weaker last month, but the household sector should start to benefit as the government spends the 20% growth in tax revenue of recent months.
China – no change
The PMIs continue to show no economic cycle. Construction activity continues to drop, but the manufacturing PMI continues to hover around the 50 mark. Input prices have rebounded again, so this year's recovery in PPI isn't ending just yet. None of these changes point to a shift in policy.
East Asia Today
Services trade in China in July suggests net trade continued to make a positive contribution to GDP growth at the start of Q3. In Japan, Tokyo CPI in August confirms the expected rise in inflation in 2H. Exports early in the month were strong, but Toyota sales through July look to be slowing.
East Asia Today
The highlights today were deputy governor Himino's speech in Japan, and the BOK meeting in Korea. Tech profits in China remain strong, but aren't lifting overall earnings. Consumer confidence in Taiwan weakened in July, while the official Monitoring Index continues to point to an economic boom.
Korea – "pre-emptive"
Today's BOK meeting didn't throw up any big surprises: core CPI and growth forecasts were raised against the backdrop of the TOT shock, and the bank hiked again with the aim of being "pre-emptive". However, Governor Shin's remarks at the press conference produced a lot to digest.
Japan – Himino hawkish
Deputy governor Himino's argued today that all the main macro dynamics are pushing up prices, underlying inflation has been rising, and so there is now a risk of "underlying inflation exceeding 2%". Unsurprisingly, he didn't spell out the policy implications, but it does sound quite hawkish, no?
Korea – still on the up
Back-to-back rate hikes aren't common, and since July, stronger KRW and lower equities have tightened FCI. However, the economic backdrop is unusually strong, so I would still expect the BOK to hike at its August meeting. That said, rather than rates, it is the KRW that looks more interesting here.
East Asia Today
The strength in services PPI inflation in Japan is related to the Iran war and the weakness of the JPY. However, wage growth indicates more upside for PPI inflation in sectors with high labour intensity. The BOK's August survey, business sentiment in Korea continued to rise.
East Asia Today
Japan July CPI and August flash PMI point to rising inflation and a stronger cycle; Korea July PPI inflation softened, but exports in the first 20 days of August rose; Taiwan export orders in July also increased, with incremental drivers being servers and cooling products for AI devices.
East Asia Today
Summary of a recent outlook note on China; trade data in Japan that continues to be boosted by AI tech demand; a collapse in Korea's net foreign assets because of the rise in the Kospi that boosted the value of foreigners' domestic equity holdings; and another quarter of 20%+ CA surplus in Taiwan.
China – cycle concerns v the CNY
I am still totally convinced that cycle dynamics today are that different from 6M ago. But that property still hasn't found a floor is a concern, and it would now be less of a surprise if monetary easing starts again. For me, the interesting question is whether that has implications for the CNY.