Cost-push – both energy and the spillover from higher chip costs into prices of downstream devices – is keeping inflation near 3%. The BOK expects demand-pull factors to become more obvious. So inflation will likely stay elevated, through for BOK policy, it is overall semi cycle that matters more.
Taiwan's overall PMIs look fine. The details are shakier, but so far, it looks like the weakness is coming from softer demand for consumer tech as semi prices boost the cost of electronics devices. The data don't (yet) show obvious deterioration in the data centre component of the AI boom.
China's official PMI continues to point to little growth in the economy. It is difficult to find reasons in the BOJ's official outlook report for the bank not to continue hiking. Korean exports dipped in October, but not because of chips. Taiwan's PMIs fell from September, but the details are mixed.
The unusually long section of analytical boxes in the BOJ's main outlook report shows that the bank has a lot on its mind. That inevitably brings nuance. However, the overall tone is clear: nominal growth remains strong, and financial conditions loose. There's no clear reason not to hike further
China is so far the only economy showing signs of being hurt by weakening confidence in the AI trade. Data in Korea and Taiwan remain extremely strong, and the BOJ remains worried about upside risks to inflation. That said, markets are more nervous, needing clarity on energy and data centre buildout
China's nominal cycle looks to be slowing again. The rest of the region remains strong, but confidence that this strength can be retained is fraying, and will likely remain under pressure, especially if concerns over the data centre build-out and energy prices worsen again after the mid-terms.
Headline official PMIs continue to closely hug the 50 threshold. I am not sure that tells us much about the economy. But two components of the PMI are useful. The ongoing slump in construction indicates no property revival. Price indicators show PPI still strong, but warn of some weakening in CPI.
The BOJ said today that risks for overall inflation are still on the upside. Korea's month-end data releases were strong for activity and capex, weaker for consumption. Taiwan's economy re-accelerated in Q3. It is plausible that the export contribution to GDP in China rose in Q3.
Rather than slowing as the government had forecast just a couple of months ago, GDP growth re-accelerated in Q3 to 14.4% YoY. That was because of domestic demand rather than net exports, and while that was mostly capex, consumption is growing more than 5%, and the positive output gap widened.
The BOJ argues today not just that "underlying inflation" has reached 2%, but that it is expected to stay there. However, it seems clear that stability won't be achieved without some help, as its analysis also says that all the risks to prices are to the upside.
Earnings releases and September macro data show the cycle has strong momentum. Growth is dominated by semis, and so dependent on the global cycle. However, the doubling in tax revenue in September shows one way in which the benefits of the semi cycle can start to broaden out.
Highlights of a longer note that takes stock of Japan before the BOJ meeting tomorrow, with the theme being short-term nominal strength. In China by contrast, equity market falls highlights deflationary risk. Business sentiment in Korea ticked up. Taiwan's monitoring index in September was strong.
With both growth and inflation strengthening, it will be tough for the BOJ not to hike faster – whatever Takaichi thinks. However, back-to-back or 50bp moves are unlikely. Moreover, the peaking of property prices and sluggishness in some wage indicators point to MT headwinds.
Foreign equity holdings are another example of the huge impact of the AI cycle in Korea and Taiwan. Trade volume data in China illustrate again that imports are as weak as exports are strong. Money supply and credit data in Taiwan are strong, but likely not strong enough to push the CBC into action.
September money and credit data for September are like other indicators for Taiwan: quite strong, but not high enough on their own to think that they suddenly break the CBC's apparently strong desire not to change policy.
The main data event today was Q3 GDP in Korea. In addition, China released profits data for September. There were two inflation updates in Japan, with the BOJ's measures of underlying CPI as well as services PPI. In Taiwan, we had consumer confidence for October.
Today's Q3 GDP data continue the same story: real growth is solid, but more importantly, the huge windfall income gain from the surge in semiconductor prices remains a major tailwind for growth in 2027. The question remains how much of that income windfall will be spent.
CPB's trade volume data show China's exports remaining strong, but imports flat-lining. Domestically, the second round of upstream price pressure in China since the start of the Iran War has lost momentum. That, however, is because of coal rather than oil prices.
Highlights of last week's indicators: the fall in the consumption share of GDP in China; why JPY depreciation hasn't boosted Japan's export volumes; the prospects for another double-digit rise in nominal GDP in Korea in 2027; and how wage growth in Taiwan is leading the region.
The sustainability of the AI cycle is critical for the region. If it ends, rates will likely be lower, but currencies not necessarily weaker. Otherwise, my themes are: China – tougher 2027; Japan – flatter curve; Korea – macro spillover; Taiwan – market spillover.
As expected CPI inflation in Japan picked up in September, and leading indicators point to further upside ahead. Taiwan softened last month, but that is at odds with strong exports. Retail sales, by contrast, were strong, consistent with labour market dynamics explored in a longer note on wages.
Like so much else in Taiwan, labour market dynamics will be determined by the fortunes of the AI cycle. If that turns down, it will be hugely important. A sharp downturn hasn't, however, been the CBC's expectation, but existing wage trends seem inconsistent with the bank's view that inflation slows.
The BOK didn't change rates today, but laid out a much more positive view on the outlook than is being expressed by regional equities. One casualty of the equity sell-off is the TWD, which will further push up inflationary pressure in Taiwan. Also today, the BOJ's senior loan officer survey.
There was no change from the BOK today, and the decision to stay on hold was unanimous. That wasn't a surprise. However, the meeting was informative, with the clear takeaway being BOK confidence that this cycle will run through 2027.
A note reviewing developments in Korea ahead – just about – of the BOK meeting tomorrow. In addition, some charts showing the continuing gap between weak auto sales in China v strong car exports. That is affecting Japan, though overall exports there in USD terms rose again in September.
