The main cycle news in China is the rebound in input prices that likely further postpones monetary loosening. In Japan, the market will be waiting for this week's summary opinions of the September meeting. Korea has the strongest cycle momentum. In Taiwan, monetary policy looks too loose.

The CBC last week claimed that even with the policy rate staying at 2%, its monetary stance "remains on the tight side". I am not persuaded, but it is worth studying the bank's argument.

In many advanced economies, governments are drowning in debt. But in Korea and Taiwan they are floating up on the flood in revenue generated by the semiconductor boom. There is so much money that both economies plan looser fiscal policy while also paying back debt.

The cycle isn't bad enough from Beijing's point of view to shift policy. With growth strengthening, it is reasonable to expect 25bp hikes/quarter in Japan. The BOK's dot plot looks light against nominal growth of near 30%. The CBC on hold is light when real rates across the curve are negative.

Consensus was right, and the CBC didn't change rates today. The vote wasn't unanimous, with two members voting for a hike. However, some of the property measures were loosened. To me, this suggests that policy is too loose, and thus that the gradual warming up of inflation will continue.

Q2 flow of funds: 1) firms remain net savers; 2) the fiscal deficit is under 2% of GDP, and government assets continue to rise; 3) GPIF, foreigners and households are absorbing JGB supply as the BOJ steps back; 4) household equity holdings are up sharply, but mainly because of valuations.

I expect the CBC to hike. That was also my view 3M ago, and then I was wrong, and the strong consensus is that I'll be wrong now too. Underlying my view is that the CBC can't be confident inflation has peaked. Instead, with real rates negative and the TWD weak, price pressures are likely to persist.

Japan is now seeing the first real upswing in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing since 2017-18. Rising CPI and the JPY aren't the only factors pushing the BOJ towards hikes.

Domestic demand remains soft, with no break in the property market collapse. But helped by exports, IP is growing near 6% saar, which keeps the GDP growth target for this year in reach. So I doubt much changes in terms of policy, but the emerging weakness in services is something to be monitoring.

Last week's GDP data showed nominal growth of over 25% YoY in Q2. Most of that was in the form of corporate profits, but employee compensation still rose 8% YoY. With the government planning growth in fiscal spending of 12% in 2027, there are more signs of the IT sector lifting the broader economy.

I am away the next few days, so this week's summary focuses on what appeared on the site in the last week. I am back on Monday 14th September.

Today's BOP data show that after selling more than USD30bn of domestic equities in June, foreigners purchased USD6bn in July. That swing goes a long way to explain the sudden appreciation of the KRW. That should be able to continue, given CA surplus of over 20% of GDP, strong economy, and BOK hikes.