Business sentiment fell again in today's survey, and has now only been worse during the global financial crisis and covid. Exporter sentiment has ticked-down, but the weakness is much more apparent in domestic, non-manufacturing sectors. Further policy easing is ahead.

Taiwan macro doesn't attract much attention, but its experience matters. Taiwan was most exposed to the 2000s China shock. That it then suffered near-deflation reflected tight fiscal policy, a lesson that needs to be learnt in dealing with the latest shock, this time emanating from the US.

Export volumes have ticked up this year, but not by enough to think that JPY weakness is finally boosting sales. That has a silver lining: just as JPY weakness didn't boost real growth, a strengthening currency won't lead to much deterioration. There will, however, be an impact on nominal earnings.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

Today's CPI release was less interesting than data released earlier in the week showing a jump in part-time wage growth in March, and comments from MPB member Nakagawa highlighting upside risks to inflation.

"It's like we're suddenly in a dark tunnel because of the change in the tariff policy of the US, so in this dark situation, it's better to adjust the speed a little bit and wait until it gets a little brighter".

Since June last year, there has been a real inflection in retail sales and some construction indicators. In Q1, however, real estate remained as weak as ever. Manufacturing FAI is strong, but that has to be at risk from the trade war. Overall, the economy still isn't on a firm footing.

The second of two videos on consumption, an issue that is even more important given the economic damage that will be inflicted on China by the tariffs. It is impossible to imagine Beijing supporting western-style consumerism. But there is still a way for economic policy to boost consumer spending.

The economic environment for Korea is about as bad as it can get. Despite the short-term rebound in house prices, that suggests more rate cuts, starting at this week's meeting, that will ultimately take the policy rate below neutral. The one caveat I have is the stickiness of services inflation.

Exports through March were solid, but not so strong as to suggest big front-loading. The real standout is the import ratio dropping to a new post-1990s low. The trade surplus upsets Trump. Equally though, weak imports limit China's appeal as a market for others looking for an alternative to the US.

Credit and monetary data continue to suggest the monetary squeeze of 2023 and 1H24 has ended. The significance of the rebound is offset by three factors: it isn't incorporating non-government borrowing; mortgage lending isn't rising; and definitional changes to M1.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.