East Asia Econ

Welcome

Welcome to EAST ASIA ECON, a research service run from Taipei by Paul Cavey, and specializing in the markets and macro of China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan.

We cover all the major data releases, as well as providing weekly and monthly summaries. We also devote a lot of time to thematic work, aiming to understand development patterns across the region, and to find common investment themes.

The analysis is founded on an on-the-ground knowledge gained from thirty years experience living, travelling and working in the region. We also have a very strong data infrastructure, built by directly accessing official sources, and made available to subscribers via a comprehensive range of interactive charts and a data app.

We don't think you'll find coverage that is as comprehensive and rounded anywhere else. The articles and charts below give a flavor of the work we are doing. There is a lot more on the home pages of the individual economies.

Signing up here will ensure you receive occassional emails that give you a taste of what we do. If you work in a financial institution and are interested in subscribing to our full service, please get in touch for a trial. Special access is also available for academics.

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Japan – BOJ gets back to labour and wages

Japan – BOJ gets back to labour and wages

The boxes in the BOJ's full outlook report that look at the labour market and wages don't suggest any weakening of the bank's underlying confidence – increasingly evident before July – that Japan's inflation is sustainable. The implication is that rate hikes remain on the agenda.

3 min read

Japan – no surprises from the BOJ

Japan – no surprises from the BOJ

No surprises from the BOJ (yet): the July forecast for underlying inflation to remain around 2% was maintained, as was the policy caution since August that stresses uncertainty in outlook for the US. There's still the press conference and full outlook report to come.

1 min read

China – PMIs: still a lot to do

China – PMIs: still a lot to do

Likely driven by the sentiment-driven rise in prices, the manufacturing PMI bounced back above 50 in October. But there was barely any change in either the services or construction, PMIs, and both will need to improve to think that the economy really is turning around.

2 min read

China – profits fall sharply in September

China – profits fall sharply in September

The government yesterday published its monthly series for the profits of the industrial sector. I am always a bit sceptical of the quality of these data. But if you want a trigger for the recent macro policy push, then the sharp fall in profits in September fits the bill.

2 min read

Japan – core inflation still at 2%

Japan – core inflation still at 2%

With the BOJ emphasising the twice-yearly patten of service prices hikes, with the second round falling in October, today's Tokyo CPI data are important. They do show services prices rising, and although the details are messy, core sequential inflation in Tokyo is also continuing to run near 2%.

2 min read

Korea – sluggish growth, but weakening KRW

Korea – sluggish growth, but weakening KRW

If the BOK was only looking at growth, then data today would give it plenty of room to cut faster, with both Q3 GDP and October business sentiment weak. However, the rise in US rates and consequent weakening of $KRW will be starting to constrain the bank once again.

2 min read

China – crunch time for consumption

China – crunch time for consumption

The slump in confidence and retail sales don't indicate a major cyclical weakening of consumption. That's partly because households have been running down excess savings from covid. But with savings now normalising, consumption is becoming more vulnerable to the deterioration in the labour market.

4 min read

Taiwan – will TSMC break the TWD?

Taiwan – will TSMC break the TWD?

There's a possibility that TSMC's success is pushing Taiwan into unchartered waters, where the CBC needs to sound hawkish, when the external imbalance is as big as it has ever been. If Taiwan's period of zero inflation has passed, there's a good chance TWD undervaluation will be challenged too.

7 min read

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