This is a shorter thematic note than usual. In the longer piece last week, I didn't come up with a chart that nicely summarised Korea's export challenge. I think I have it now. While Korea is holding on in DM, it is losing market share just about everywhere else, being pushed out largely by China.

Today's first estimate of Q4 GDP was strong. The big contribution came from service exports, but the surprise was the resilience of consumption, with the backdrop being another decent rise in real compensation.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

Gone are the days when the monetary data can make a big difference to the market mood. Today's release doesn't turn back the clock: the headline is a bit stronger, but mortgage lending wasn't, and there are distortions from Chinese New Year and definition changes.

The rebound in headline employment in January wasn't broad, with jobs in the private sector remaining weak. With no reversal in the sharp rise in the participation rate of recent years, and the number of part-time jobs still rising, the labour market is likely less tight than headline data suggest.

In LCU terms, there's little to choose between exports in the different economies. But in volumes, China and Taiwan are very strong, and Korea and Japan clearly lagging. This should have implications for CNY, TWD and KRW. For Japan, the significance is for macro if USDJPY turns.

A longer video discussing demographics, the area where Asia is most clearly leading the world. The changes in the population will clearly matter for economies, but Japan's experience shows the macro implications aren't necessarily what might be expected.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

January core CPI picked up. That doesn't look like a Chinese New Year effect, and comes after Q4 when prices were already looking firmer. This dosn't mean inflation, but if core, which has underperformed other price indicators, is now catching up, it would mean China isn't in underlying deflation.

The spike in inflation seen in January isn't unexpected given consumer spending on the back of this year's early Chinese New Year. The strength of exports can't be explained away in the same way, and suggests Taiwan's relative outperformance is continuing.

Naoki Tamura is a relative hawk at the BOJ. While that doesn't make him mainstream, his speech today is still worth reading, because it is direct and well-reasoned, and because an upside surprise in inflation and rates is a very reasonable scenario for 2025.

Full-time worker wage growth remains stable at a bit under 3%. Further acceleration is likely, though not much: this year's shunto will probably moderate from 2024. Part-time worker wage growth is though continuing to rise, consistent with the BOJ's view of a tight labour market.