With public services prices rising in March, the upwards drift in private services prices of recent months is now showing in core inflation. It still isn't high, but with business surveys suggesting some pressure on goods prices too, inflation is becoming more of a constraint on BOK action.

The picture painted by the PMIs isn't uniform, either for the region, or for particular economies. Overall, however, for activity there are more signs of weakness than strength. But inflation looks firm in Korea, and continues to have even stronger momentum in Japan.

The Tankan showed another rise in price pressures, particularly in non-manufacturing, the sector where labour market conditions are also the tightest and sentiment the strongest. The details of Trump's plans could change things, but domestic dynamics keep the BOJ on track to hike again.

The PMIs suggest the economy, once again, is muddling through. The better momentum after the policy announcements that started from September has faded, but isn't reversing. However, that probably isn't enough, given the new shock from tariffs that is about to hit.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

As would be expected, the summary of the March MPC meeting shows more concern about US policy. But this isn't a repeat of summer 2024 when the BOJ got cold feet on new rate hikes. Inflation data remain solid, and the meeting talked about upside risks for prices, driven by domestic factors.

The PBC sentiment surveys suggest again an economy that is muddling through. One reason is that consumer spending hasn't fallen, with the big shifts instead being a further move away from consumption on goods to spending on services, and more saving in bank deposits rather than investments.

Business confidence remains extremely weak, and consumer confidence isn't a whole lot better. That being the case, the BOK is going to want to cut further, but inflation readings in the sentiment surveys aren't giving the all-clear for an aggressive loosening.

A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days.

A follow-up to the video a couple of weeks ago. That looked at demand-side factors. This delves into the supply-side and factors behind the "deflationary mindset". In these areas, China today looks even more different from Japan in the 1990s.

Tuesday's minutes of the February meeting show concern about weak growth. The impact of higher $KRW on inflation was played down, and the committee didn't discuss the rising services prices that have worried me. Perhaps not surprisingly given rates were cut, household debt was back on the agenda.

In advance of the CBC meeting this week, a short slide pack on the key themes in Taiwan. In particular, the rise in inflation (I took the photo at my favourite bread shop here today) and Trump's agenda keep the TWD in play for a structural realignment stronger.